Economic evaluation of measles catch-up and follow-up campaigns in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003

This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

PM2.5致卵巢癌的风险及城乡差异的生态学研究

为了评估PM_2.5排放导致女性生殖系统癌症的风险以及城乡差异,以卵巢癌为例,分析了中国东部地区2000~2011年期间PM_2.5和卵巢癌发病率和死亡率的相关关系,并估算了PM_2.5排放导致卵巢癌发病率和死亡率升高的风险.结果表明,城市地区卵巢癌发病率和死亡率显著高于农村,在城市地区,PM_2.5与卵巢癌发病率显著相关,PM_2.5年平均浓度每上升10μg/m³,城市地区卵巢癌发病率上升的相对风险为9.3%（相对于PM_2.5年平均浓度为35μg/m³时）,每十万人口升高0.51人.     

广州市大气NO2污染对暴露人群不同疾病死亡的影响

通过收集广州市2011~2015年6种疾病（非意外因素、心血管疾病、脑卒中、缺血性心脏病、呼吸系统疾病以及慢性阻塞性肺疾病）逐日死亡人数、逐日NO₂浓度以及同期气象资料,采用广义相加模型探讨了NO₂暴露对不同疾病死亡的影响（相对危险度,RR值）和累积滞后效应,并进一步采用分层分析方法解析了冷季（11月至次年4月）和暖季（5~10月） NO₂死亡风险的差异.结果表明,NO₂影响急促短暂,通常持续4d.当NO₂浓度升高10μg/m³,在Lag0-4d时,人群非意外死亡人数将上升2.18%（RR=1.0218;95% CI：1.0167,1.0270）,在冷季与暖季分别上升2.6%（RR=1.0260;95% CI：1.0191,1.0328）与0.57%（RR=1.0057;95% CI：0.9952,1.0163）,两者差异有统计学意义（P=0.002）.在不同疾病中,NO₂对慢性阻塞性肺疾病的影响最大.因而NO₂仍然为广州地区人群健康重要的危险因素,需要加强NO₂排放的控制与治理,并且加强冷季健康风险预警以保护公共健康.     

Estimation of spatiotemporal trends in bat abundance from mortality data collected at wind turbines

Renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, are essential tools for reducing the causes of climate change, but wind turbines can pose a collision risk for bats. To date, the population-level effects of wind-related mortality have been estimated for only 1 bat species. To estimate temporal trends in bat abundance, we considered wind turbines as opportunistic sampling tools for flying bats (analogous to fishing nets), where catch per unit effort (carcass abundance per monitored turbine) is a proxy for aerial abundance of bats, after accounting for seasonal variation in activity. We used a large, standardized data set of records of bat carcasses from 594 turbines in southern Ontario, Canada, and corrected these data to account for surveyor efficiency and scavenger removal. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate temporal trends in aerial abundance of bats and to explore the effect of spatial factors, including landscape features associated with bat habitat (e.g., wetlands, croplands, and forested lands), on the number of mortalities for each species. The models showed a rapid decline in the abundance of 4 species in our study area; declines in capture of carcasses over 7 years ranged from 65% (big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus]) to 91% (silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]). Estimated declines were independent of the effects of mitigation (increasing wind speed at which turbines begin to generate electricity from 3.5 to 5.5 m/s), which significantly reduced but did not eliminate bat mortality. Late-summer mortality of hoary (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), and silver-haired bats was predicted by woodlot cover, and mortality of big brown bats decreased with increasing elevation. These landscape predictors of bat mortality can inform the siting of future wind energy operations. Our most important result is the apparent decline in abundance of four common species of bat in the airspace, which requires further investigation.     

长江靖江段沿岸似鳊生长及种群参数估算

2012年1月~2013年12月连续24个月在长江靖江段沿岸收集似鳊标本2 334尾,采用基于体长频率数据的ELEFAN I技术估算长江近口段沿岸似鳊的生长参数与种群参数。结果表明:似鳊体长(L,cm)与体质量(W,g)幂函数关系为:W=0.0182×L~(2.948)(r=0.9823,n=2334)。Von Bertalanffy生长方程描述的似鳊生长参数为:极限体长(L_∞)=19.25 cm,生长系数(K)=0.2/a,理论生长起点年龄(t_0)为-1.59 a,体质量的生长拐点年龄为3.55 a。采用Pauly的经验公式估算似鳊自然死亡系数(M)为0.556/a。由长度变换渔获曲线法估算出的似鳊总死亡系数(Z)为1.638/a,捕捞死亡系数(F)和开发率(E)分别为1.082/a和0.66/a。2012~2013年长江靖江段沿岸似鳊年均资源重量和资源数量分别为120.59 t和947.4万尾。经相关估算参数和相对单位补充渔获量分析得出,当前长江靖江段沿岸似鳊已处于过度捕捞状态。建议将沿岸水域禁渔期延长至9月(即4~9月),以实现似鳊资源的恢复和可持续发展。     

Differential toxic response of Chironomus travalensis kieffer ( Chironomidae : Diptera ) to some industrial effluents

Acute toxicity testing of some industrial effluents (rubber (Rr), brewery (Br), and bottling (Bt)) on Chironomus travalensis (Diptera larvae) was determined at 96-h using a static bioassay technique. Effluent quality characterization revealed acidic pH values of 4.5 for Rr, 5.64 for Br, and 4.32 for Bt effluents. Tests were carried out in replicates between 10 and 100% effluent concentrations. Mortality rate rose progressively with increasing concentrations. Bt effluent was the most toxic with 96-h LC₅₀ of 61.5%, closely followed by Rr effluent with 96-h LC₅₀ of 87% and the least toxic was Br effluent with 96-h LC₅₀ of 90%.     

技术进步对煤矿安全生产的影响分析

安全生产是我国煤炭行业健康发展的重要前提。通过研究我国煤矿安全生产现状,分析其影响因素,提出技术进步在保障安全生产中的重要性。运用多元回归分析方法建立基于技术进步的从业人员素质、机械化程度与百万吨死亡率之间关系的回归分析模型,研究结果表明它们之间的关系为高度相关,且模型具有很好的拟合度。根据分析结论提出相应的政策建议,为基于安全生产的技术进步与煤矿产能之间的协调发展提供理论依据。     

2015年中国PM2.5相关超额死亡数集成评估

环境空气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染是我国目前较为突出的环境问题,也对人群健康造成严重威胁。基于国内外5套不同来源的2015年中国PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度数据和5种暴露-反应关系(exposure-response,E-R)模型,设置了不同PM_(2.5)暴露浓度与E-R模型的25种组合情景,评估了2015年中国归因于环境PM_(2.5)导致的超额死亡数。结果表明,2015年全国(覆盖2 826个区县) PM_(2.5)相关超额死亡数为75.0万～256.5万例,其中应用国内E-R模型评估得到的超额死亡数(186.0万～256.5万例)大于国外模型评估得到的超额死亡数(75.0万～133.2万例);空间分布上,京津冀、河南、山东等重污染地区及人口密度较大地区的PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担较重,这些地区需制定更严格的政策来改善空气质量及保护公众健康。指出,我国地面监测站获得的暴露数据通常会高估全国PM_(2.5)的实际浓度均值,运用多套PM_(2.5)暴露浓度数据和多种E-R模型评估疾病负担,有利于减少评估的不确定性。提出,应加强我国PM_(2.5)与人群健康的队列研究及数据积累,以获取更准确的E-R关系,提升PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担评估结果的准确性。     

北京地区未来地震中各种类型建筑可能造成的人员死亡率

地震房屋倒塌率CR和地震死亡率FR存在一定的关系,据此,本文研究计算得到了北京地区在未来地震中各类建筑可能造成的人员死亡率FR.